Saturday, June 20, 2009

S&p500 index bull/bear tug-o-war

(click the chart on enlarge)

S&P 500 index has some work to do in order to climb above 950. On a daily or weekly basis the index still could climb above 950 but on a monthly basis it has to close above 950 and stay above it for the long term sustainability of the market.

As the chart shows, the market started having difficulty at this level starting in 1997. So everytime it revisits this area bulls and bears get into a tug-o-war. The bears will defend the area around 950 with all the weapons they have in their arsenal. Bulls having climbed from 666.79 is already tired(not enough capital to invest at this level inorder to power thru 950) and needs some rest. Once the rest period is over, the bulls need to accumulate enough energy to bring down the bears standing in line at 950. Don't know how long bears will have the strength to hold the bulls below 950. Watch and wait!

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